A sovereign cloud can still have a bad day: What CADA leaves to your recovery plan

Infrastructure and operationsOctober 15, 2026 | 7 minutesBy Kim Larsen

Most of the conversation around the EU’s proposed Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA) is about where data lives and who controls the provider holding it. Those are the questions the proposal is designed to answer, and for jurisdiction and control, they’re the right ones. The question that decides how an organization comes through a bad day is a different one: When a service fails, can you get your data back, and from where?

Sovereignty narrows who can reach your data. Whether you can recover it depends on something CADA doesn’t assess: a copy that sits outside the infrastructure that failed, under separate control in an independent environment. 

CADA is built to measure the provider 

The core of the proposal is a Union cloud sovereignty framework with four assurance levels. Each level tightens the requirements on the same things: where infrastructure and data are located, whether the provider is independent from third countries, who owns and controls it, and how transparent its software supply chain is.

The Commission’s explanatory memorandum is clear about the risks this targets:

  • the reach of third-country laws,  
  • loss of control over data and infrastructure,  
  • and operational discontinuity if a decision taken outside the EU interrupts a service. 

That’s a sensible design for the problem it’s solving. It also means the unit of assessment is a single service from a single provider. The Commission expects most public services to need only the lower levels, so for many organizations the sovereignty question will come down largely to location.

Real disruptions rarely stay inside that boundary. Services depend on each other: on identity providers, directory services, DNS, and the administrator accounts that manage them. Recovery has to be sequenced around those shared layers before any single application comes back. A service can be recognized at a high assurance level and still be unreachable because something it depends on has failed, and its assurance level won’t tell you where you’d restore from. 

A sovereign service can still go dark 

CADA’s four levels build on each other. Level 1 requires data to be stored and processed in the EU, Level 2 adds independence from third countries and supply chain transparency, Level 3 requires EU ownership and control, and Level 4 requires full control over the software supply chain, with no third-country interference. It helps to map the assurance levels against the ways cloud services actually fail.

Author

Kim Larsen is Group Chief Information Security Officer at Keepit and has more than 20 years of leadership experience in IT and cybersecurity from government and the private sector.

Areas of expertise include business driven security, aligning corporate, digital and security strategies, risk management and threat mitigation adequate to business needs, developing and implementing security strategies, leading through communication and coaching.

Larsen is an experienced keynote speaker, negotiator, and board advisor on cyber and general security topics, with experience from a wide range of organizations, including NATO, EU, Verizon, Systematic, and a number of industry security boards.

 

Find Kim Larsen on LinkedIn.

DisruptionWhat the assurance levels changeWhat recovery depends on
Third-country legal or political action against the providerThis is the risk the higher levels are designed to reduceA separate copy still covers the residual risk
Provider outage, or failure of a shared service such as identity or DNSLimited. Security requirements strengthen the provider, but a sovereign provider can still have an outageA copy outside that provider, and a restore path that does not depend on the failed service
Ransomware or a compromised administrator account in your environmentLimited. The levels assess the provider; access and administration inside your own environment remain your responsibilityAn immutable copy under separate credentials and administration
Accidental or malicious deletion, misconfiguration, or sync errorsLargely outside what the levels assessPoint-in-time copies with retention you control
Provider insolvency or a forced exitPartly. Data Act switching rights help when the provider is still able to honor themA copy you already hold, in a form you can restore elsewhere
Software supply chain compromisePartly. Levels 2 to 4 add supply chain transparency, which improves visibilityA clean, earlier copy held outside the compromised service

A sovereign cloud can still have a bad day: What CADA leaves to your recovery plan

Infrastructure and operationsOctober 15, 2026 | 7 minutesBy Kim Larsen

Analysis based on the Commission’s summary of the four assurance levels.

The pattern is consistent. The assurance levels are strongest against the risk they were designed for and have little to say about the everyday causes of outages and data loss. That’s in keeping with what CADA sets out to do. It’s also a reminder that sovereignty and recoverability are separate properties, and a service can have one without the other.

CADA isn’t the Commission’s only way of grading cloud sovereignty. The EU Cloud Sovereignty Framework, published in October 2025 to evaluate cloud providers in the Commission’s own procurement, assesses providers against eight sovereignty objectives:

  • SOV-1, strategic: ownership, control, and EU anchoring 
  • SOV-2, legal and jurisdictional: exposure to non-EU laws 
  • SOV-3, data and AI: control over data, keys, and processing location 
  • SOV-4, operational: running and supporting the service without non-EU involvement 
  • SOV-5, supply chain: origin of hardware and software 
  • SOV-6, technology: open standards, open source, and interoperability 
  • SOV-7, security and compliance: certifications and EU-controlled security operations 
  • SOV-8, environmental sustainability: energy use and environmental footprint 

Each objective is rated on a Sovereignty Effectiveness Assurance Level (SEAL), from SEAL-0 to SEAL-4. Like CADA, the framework is thorough about who controls a service. Whether your data can be restored after an outage, a ransomware attack, or a deletion is left for providers to volunteer, or for buyers to ask about. 

 

Taken together, they’re a reminder that sovereignty and recoverability are separate properties, and a service can have one without the other. 

Sovereignty is about control, and so is recovery 

I’ve written before that data sovereignty is really about control: knowing you have control of your data, local access to it, and the ability to migrate it, regardless of what happens to any single provider. CADA’s framework does a good job with the first parts of that sentence. The last clause is where recovery lives.

 

For a copy of your data to hold up regardless of what happens to a provider, it has to be independent in four ways:

  • Jurisdiction. Who can compel access to it. This is where CADA is strongest. 
  • Location. Where it physically sits, and on whose infrastructure. CADA covers this for the provider’s own infrastructure. 
  • Administration. Separate credentials, accounts, and control plane. If someone with administrator rights over production can also delete the backup, the backup sits inside the same blast radius as the data it protects. 
  • Integrity. At least one immutable copy, with retention that nobody in the production environment can shorten. This is the logic behind the modern 3-2-1 rule: two distinct security boundaries and one copy that can’t be altered or deleted.

EU law already recognizes most of this. The NIS2 Directive lists backup management and disaster recovery among the cybersecurity risk-management measures that essential and important entities must take (Article 21). DORA goes further, requiring financial entities to restore using systems that are physically and logically segregated from the source system (Article 12). CADA’s text already connects to both: recital 63 expects sovereignty risk assessments to account for data covered by sector-specific obligations such as DORA, and recital 65 asks buyers to consider whether a multi-vendor or multi-cloud approach is appropriate.

The natural place to bring these together is the risk assessment under Article 29, where Member States and Union entities would decide which activities need which assurance level, using a common methodology set by the Commission. An assessment that asks where the data is and who controls the provider can ask the same questions about the recovery copy. I’d like to see that addressed explicitly as the proposal moves through Parliament and Council, and in the methodology that follows. 

Three pieces of advice for sovereignty assessments 

None of this needs to wait for the final text. For anyone assessing cloud services against sovereignty criteria now, I’d start with three things:

  • Assess dependencies, not only services

For each critical service, map what it needs to run and to be restored: identity, directory, DNS, and the administrator accounts that manage it. Deciding which services are critical is a business decision, made with the people who own the risk if the service goes down.

  • Assess the recovery copy the way you assess the service 

When a procurement or risk assessment asks where the data lives and who controls the provider, ask the same of the copy: where it sits, who administers it, and whether an incident in production can reach it.

  • Test the restore from outside 

Restore from the copy using credentials and infrastructure that don’t depend on the primary service. If recovery requires the failed provider’s console or accounts, the copy isn’t independent, whatever its assurance level.

If there’s one thing to take away: Control 

CADA would give Europe a shared way to measure who controls its cloud, and that’s overdue. Use it, then ask the question the assurance levels leave to you: If this service had a bad day tomorrow, where would we recover from? Sovereignty tells you who can reach your data. Recoverability tells you whether you can get it back. The organizations that come through a disruption intact are the ones that have planned for both and have control over both. 

Author

Kim Larsen is Group Chief Information Security Officer at Keepit and has more than 20 years of leadership experience in IT and cybersecurity from government and the private sector.

Areas of expertise include business driven security, aligning corporate, digital and security strategies, risk management and threat mitigation adequate to business needs, developing and implementing security strategies, leading through communication and coaching.

Larsen is an experienced keynote speaker, negotiator, and board advisor on cyber and general security topics, with experience from a wide range of organizations, including NATO, EU, Verizon, Systematic, and a number of industry security boards.

 

Find Kim Larsen on LinkedIn.